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November 21, 2016

Lies, damn lies & statistics??

Weather update from top of Mt. Pihanga as at 10.44 am Monday – by Brian Gray:

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British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli was reported to have said “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

DOC’s graph was posted last week to indicate the best times to fish the Tongariro – when the fishing effort is at the lowest.  OK?

(DOC are the Department of Conservation who try to manage all aspects of the Taupo trout fishery – apart from marketing and promotion.  TRM have to do that for them…)

SWMBO was disappointed with the relative minor feedback.  Why?  TRM think that DOC’s statistical data analysed in the graph is completely wrong.  It has to be.  We wonder if anyone else bothered to really read it.  Only the naturally suspicious West Island anglers were concerned.  They have to plan much more carefully for when they come here so the times of low angler pressure are targeted whenever possible.

SWMBO has superbly managed TRM for thirteen years since 2004 but She readily concedes TRM cannot hope to match DOC’s statistical analysis over many years.  She has a staff of one (feeble part time pensioner) compared to DOC with about 8 enthusiastic young qualified eco warriors. 

But for the last 13 years Her busiest time for Tongariro River (see blue line) anglers is always January – during annual school holidays – and February – cicada time.  i.e. TRM is already almost booked out in February.  Other motels forward bookings will concur.  Compare that to DOC’s graph above.  They claim that is when the fishing effort is the lowest level?  That is so illogical and does not make sense at all. 

The population of Turangi increases from about 3,000 to over 9,000 (guestimated only) during peak summer.  All the holiday homes fill up – mainly with anglers.  Every motel and motor camp are at peak capacity from 24 December through to end of February.  Similarly, December-January-February period is the busiest time for anglers on Lake Taupo as it is on the Tongariro River as well.

Secondly, that graph was dated 2005.  That makes it 11 years out of date.  To give them credit, back then DOC actually tried to keep anglers informed through the Target Taupo magazine.   To indicate the changes, over the same period Taupo fishing licence sales have almost halved.   The peak – spawning runs months – claimed in July-August-September may have been more applicable back then but are not in 2016.  Judging by TRM fishos’ bookings the runs are now far more spread out and later each season.  In 2016 the peak runs were in October.   The angler pressure during the summer months of December-January-February should have been at least close to, or exceed the winter season.  

So the best time to come for the Tongariro fishing has not changed – just get here whenever you can…

Can you spot the trout waiting for you in the tail of the Fence Pool below?.  I could count about ten with the naked eye but the trusty iPhone (non combustible) camera does not pick them out quite so well…

fence-pool-winter-limit

 

 

 

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